OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES FOR BELIZE IN 2010

As we near the end of 2009 it would be remiss to not look back at the year that was – this is primarily because in the spirit of the Christmas season one becomes reflective and this columnist too will be availing herself of the opportunity to look back at the possibilities that were never to be and to look forward to better things for next year.  2009 was a year filled with successes for the few.  Most Belizeans felt the brunt of the global financial and economic crisis as it rushed to our shores unabated.  This manifested itself in many ways: output was dismal which resulted in an overall economic contraction; credit was tight as household incomes reduced and the financial sector’s response was unapologetic; unemployment by all unofficial counts increased due to the overall decline and inflation and price levels only started to dwindle in the latter half of the year.

Thus, for many Belizeans the previous achievements of supporting their sustainable livelihoods were severely compromised.  As one’s asset base was challenged, by not being able to pursue continued education; seek access to affordable health care; realizing reduction in income; and the erosion of political capital within the social landscape.  For most Belizeans the setback was greatest for those who had to lose their assets such as businesses, real estate and homes.  So, for the benefit of Belize and her people it is imperative that the outlook for 2010 is one that is premised on Government ensuring that the interest of the Belizean people is placed in the forefront of all their undertakings.  A snapshot of what that economic outlook for 2010 can be is hereby presented.

It is expected on all accounts that economic growth will be sluggish and slow to recover as any sustained recovery is predicated on international trade flows.  In this light economic output or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth would be premised on the following:

• Oil production will be the main driver, with oil prices predicted at remaining between US$70 – US$80 per barrel.  It is expected that Belize’s production and sales will increase.
• Other productive sectors such as farmed fish and shrimp their performance is contingent on continued access to and investment of capital to ensure their competitiveness in the market.
• The banana industry will be challenged by the removal of tariff preferences into the European Union, but the scope for expanded production remains viable.
• The sugar and citrus industries which have been plagued by management challenges need to ensure greater coordination and commitment to the longevity of the industries.
• The tourism sector is expected to lag behind the productive sectors, as its recovery and improved performance is contingent on the pace of recovery in the US and Europe.
• Lastly, Government’s commitment to engendering investors’ confidence will influence the rate of attracting foreign direct investment into the economy.

With the recovery expected to be uneven and conditions for sustainable growth fragile within the global economy, Belize’s position must be anchored in its economic and political commitment to regionalism.  Therefore, Government is tasked with ensuring that policy formulation is concrete and congruent with Belize’s development objectives.  Participating and reaping the benefits of this regionalism can only be realized if Government is driven by the productive sector.  It is foolhardy to expect the current Government to lead with any vision.  Thus, it is incumbent on the private sector organizations for both the productive and services sectors to avail themselves of the market access and benefits available under the CARICOM Single Market and Economy; Economic Partnership Agreement between CARIFORUM and the EU; CARICOM – Canada bilateral agreement and closer to home the Partial Scope Agreement between Belize and Guatemala.  The productive sector is called upon to organize and be the driving force to lead Belize’s recovery efforts.

As all Belizeans look forward in anticipation to the New Year the challenge is to pray that 2010 will be a better year for all.  The hope is that for the benefit of all, Government will be humbled enough to hear the heartbeats of the people and their call for a higher quality of leadership for 2010.  No more rhetoric; as Belize’s development cannot wait!

For 2010 readers are invited to suggest topics of interest for this column.  Send comments to GwynethNah@gmail.com

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